Goldman Sachs, one of the largest investment banks in the world, has issued an update to its equity research report, “Music in the Air,” stating that the recorded music market will earn $45 billion in 2030, a number largely fueled by music-streaming subscription sales.
“Streaming is set to propel global music revenue to record highs,” the report stated.
Goldman Sachs upped its most previous forecast in 2017 that the industry would grow $44 billion in the same period. Two months ago, the International Federation of the Phonographic Industry reported that global recorded music revenues reached $19.1 billion in 2018, up 9.7% over 2017, mainly from music-streaming growth.
Goldman Sachs says that paid music streaming will generate $27.5 billion for labels and artists in that year (surpassing a previous forecast of $27.1 billion), and that the overall annual global music-streaming revenues will reach $37.2 billion.
In 2030, the firm predicts, there will be 1.15 billion paying streaming subscribers globally (up on a previous forecast of 901 million). Within that number, Goldman believes that more than two thirds of subscribers (68%) will come from emerging markets, not established ones.
However, as a result of growth in emerging markets, it predicts that global annual ARPU (Average Revenue Per paying User) from music streaming services will continue to fall, down from $32.70 in 2018 to $27.30 in 2023 to $24.60 in 2030.
Goldman Sachs also predicts that in 2030 Spotify will remain the global market leader in audio subscription streaming, with 32% market share of global streaming subscribers, down from the 38% it registered in 2018.
Goldman Sachs is an American multinational investment bank and financial services company headquartered in New York City.
Source: Rolling Stone